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Forecast 18ea17ad · published 2026-09-02
Around 0 job postings for program manager roles are expected the week of Aug 10–16, 2026 (likely range: 0–1, 80% coverage) — down from 3 the week of Jul 13–19, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Aug 10–16, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 0 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-16
- Expires
- 2026-08-23
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 9 job postings
- Off by
- 9 postings
- Accuracy
- 4%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-1.1 missed the observed 9.0 (up) in 2026-W33; point estimate was 0.4 (down).
Observed history
program manager — the series behind the fit
Jun 8–14, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 3 mentions
How we know
Evidence
11
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-02
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 0.4
- Actual
- 9
- Accuracy
- 4%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-16
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for program manager
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources