Forecast 24dec52e · published 2026-08-19
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-0.8 missed the observed 60.0 (up) in 2026-W30; point estimate was 0.3 (flat).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-19
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for automation
21 forecasts published, 15 scored, mean accuracy 42%.
Primary sources