Around 0 job postings mentioning change management are expected the week of Sep 7–13, 2026 (likely range: 0–3, 80% coverage) — roughly flat from 0 the week of Aug 10–16, 2026.

Missed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period: Sep 7–13, 2026
Predicted mentions: 0 job postings
Direction: → Roughly flat
Method: Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by: 2026-09-13
Expires: 2026-09-20

Confidence at publication

Early signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions: 119 job postings
Off by: 119 postings
Accuracy: 0%
Direction: ✗ Missed
Predicted range: ✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 0.0-2.7 missed the observed 119.0 (up) in 2026-W37; point estimate was 0.5 (flat).

Observed history

change management — the series behind the fit

Jun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 1 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 0 mentions

How we know

Evidence

Confidence

Early signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-08-15

Reality validation

Predicted: 0.48
Actual: 119
Accuracy: 0%
Direction: missed

How this forecast was made

Approach: Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead: 4 weeks
Checked against reality by: 2026-09-13
Can it be edited?: No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for change management

15 forecasts published, 9 scored, mean accuracy 30%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.