Forecast c3eb74c3 · published 2026-09-02
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-0.2 missed the observed 1.0 (flat) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 0.0 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-02
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for process improvement
10 forecasts published, 4 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources