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Forecast e9e70aa9 · published 2026-09-02
Around 1 job postings for product manager roles are expected the week of Aug 17–23, 2026 (likely range: 0–3, 80% coverage) — down from 8 the week of Jul 20–26, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Aug 17–23, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 1 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-23
- Expires
- 2026-08-30
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 7 job postings
- Off by
- 6 postings
- Accuracy
- 15%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-2.9 missed the observed 7.0 (down) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 1.1 (down).
Observed history
product manager — the series behind the fit
Jun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 12 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 6 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 8 mentions
How we know
Evidence
30+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
Last updated
2026-09-02
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 1.06
- Actual
- 7
- Accuracy
- 15%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-23
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for product manager
16 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 26%.
Primary sources
Coin Market Cap: Technical AI Product Manager2026-06-30job listing
Accuweather Careers: Product Manager, Mapping and Weather Visualization2026-06-30job listing