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Forecast 36c689a8 · published 2026-07-30
Around 1 job postings mentioning change management are expected the week of Jul 6–12, 2026 (likely range: 0–4, 80% confidence) — down from 2 the week of Jun 8–14, 2026.
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jul 6–12, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 1 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-07-12
- Expires
- 2026-07-19
Confidence at publication
16%
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 1 job postings
- Off by
- 0 postings
- Accuracy
- 82%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
Interval 0.0-3.6 covered the observed 1.0 (down) in 2026-W28; point estimate was 1.2 (down).
Observed history
change management — the series behind the fit
May 4–10, 2026: 2 mentionsMay 11–17, 2026: 3 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 3 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 3 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 1 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 2 mentions
How we know
Evidence
14
Confidence
16%
Source diversity
0 sources
Last updated
2026-07-30
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 1.22
- Actual
- 1
- Accuracy
- 82%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-07-12
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for change management
6 forecasts published, 3 scored, mean accuracy 47%.
No source documents resolve for this artefact.