Forecast 5f9c6c0f · published 2026-09-02
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-5.8 missed the observed 401.0 (up) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 1.4 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
86% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-02
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources