Forecast 2fd0463f · published 2026-08-19
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.2-1.9 missed the observed 84.0 (up) in 2026-W31; point estimate was 1.0 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-19
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources