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Forecast edd40b7e · published 2026-07-29
Around 10 job postings for program manager roles are expected the week of Jul 13–19, 2026 (likely range: 8–13, 80% confidence) — up from 8 the week of Jun 15–21, 2026.
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jul 13–19, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 10 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-07-19
- Expires
- 2026-07-26
Confidence at publication
33%
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 12 job postings
- Off by
- 2 postings
- Accuracy
- 85%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
Interval 7.5-12.8 covered the observed 12.0 (up) in 2026-W29; point estimate was 10.2 (up).
Observed history
program manager — the series behind the fit
May 11–17, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
33%
Source diversity
0 sources
Last updated
2026-07-29
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 10.18
- Actual
- 12
- Accuracy
- 85%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-07-19
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for program manager
8 forecasts published, 4 scored, mean accuracy 79%.
No source documents resolve for this artefact.