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Forecast c929c68e · published 2026-08-18
Around 3 job postings mentioning jira are expected the week of Sep 14–20, 2026 (likely range: 0–8, 80% coverage) — down from 40 the week of Aug 17–23, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 14–20, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 3 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-09-20
- Expires
- 2026-09-27
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 95 job postings
- Off by
- 92 postings
- Accuracy
- 3%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-8.5 missed the observed 95.0 (up) in 2026-W38; point estimate was 2.9 (down).
Observed history
jira — the series behind the fit
Jul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 1 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 2 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
98% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-18
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 2.9
- Actual
- 95
- Accuracy
- 3%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-09-20
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for jira
17 forecasts published, 11 scored, mean accuracy 44%.
Primary sources