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Forecast a65814e2 · published 2026-08-15
Around 11 job postings for product manager roles are expected the week of Sep 7–13, 2026 (likely range: 7–16, 80% coverage) — up from 7 the week of Aug 10–16, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 7–13, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 11 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-09-13
- Expires
- 2026-09-20
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 34 job postings
- Off by
- 23 postings
- Accuracy
- 33%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 6.5-15.8 missed the observed 34.0 (up) in 2026-W37; point estimate was 11.2 (up).
Observed history
product manager — the series behind the fit
Jul 6–12, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 6 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 8 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 10 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 10 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 10 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
3 sources
83% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-15
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 11.18
- Actual
- 34
- Accuracy
- 33%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-09-13
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for product manager
16 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 26%.
Primary sources