Forecasts
G
← All forecasts
Forecast b02e7fd3 · published 2026-08-18
Around 3 job postings for product manager roles are expected the week of Sep 14–20, 2026 (likely range: 0–6, 80% coverage) — down from 10 the week of Aug 17–23, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 14–20, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 3 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-09-20
- Expires
- 2026-09-27
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 31 job postings
- Off by
- 28 postings
- Accuracy
- 9%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-5.9 missed the observed 31.0 (up) in 2026-W38; point estimate was 2.7 (down).
Observed history
product manager — the series behind the fit
Jul 13–19, 2026: 6 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 8 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 10 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 10 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 10 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 23 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
3 sources
Last updated
2026-08-18
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 2.71
- Actual
- 31
- Accuracy
- 9%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-09-20
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for product manager
16 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 26%.
Primary sources