Forecast 03693025 · published 2026-08-31
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-71.0 covered the observed 67.0 (down) in 2026-W40; point estimate was 20.8 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
90% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-31
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for coaching
15 forecasts published, 9 scored, mean accuracy 48%.
Primary sources