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Forecast 7361bbbb · published 2026-09-07
Around 20 job postings for project manager roles are expected the week of Oct 5–11, 2026 (likely range: 0–56, 80% coverage) — down from 118 the week of Sep 7–13, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Oct 5–11, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 20 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-11
- Expires
- 2026-10-18
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 121 job postings
- Off by
- 101 postings
- Accuracy
- 17%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-56.4 missed the observed 121.0 (up) in 2026-W41; point estimate was 20.2 (down).
Observed history
project manager — the series behind the fit
Aug 3–9, 2026: 4 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 16 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 14 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 187 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 233 mentionsSep 7–13, 2026: 118 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
90% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-07
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 20.23
- Actual
- 121
- Accuracy
- 17%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-11
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for project manager
16 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 18%.
Primary sources