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Forecast c3961607 · published 2026-07-29
Around 16 job postings mentioning security are expected the week of Aug 24–30, 2026 (likely range: 9–22, 80% coverage) — up from 11 the week of Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Aug 24–30, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 16 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-30
- Expires
- 2026-09-06
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 412 job postings
- Off by
- 396 postings
- Accuracy
- 4%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 8.8-22.3 missed the observed 412.0 (up) in 2026-W35; point estimate was 15.5 (up).
Observed history
security — the series behind the fit
Jun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 2 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 21 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 16 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-07-29
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 15.54
- Actual
- 412
- Accuracy
- 4%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-30
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for security
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources