Forecast 6067f6e8 · published 2026-08-24
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-97.3 covered the observed 2.0 (down) in 2026-W39; point estimate was 32.0 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
98% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-24
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources