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Forecast 1bab2669 · published 2026-07-29
Around 18 job postings mentioning risk management are expected the week of Jul 13–19, 2026 (likely range: 13–22, 80% confidence) — up from 12 the week of Jun 15–21, 2026.
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jul 13–19, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 18 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-07-19
- Expires
- 2026-07-26
Confidence at publication
35%
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 16 job postings
- Off by
- 2 postings
- Accuracy
- 90%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
Interval 13.1-22.3 covered the observed 16.0 (up) in 2026-W29; point estimate was 17.7 (up).
Observed history
risk management — the series behind the fit
May 11–17, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
35%
Source diversity
0 sources
Last updated
2026-07-29
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 17.71
- Actual
- 16
- Accuracy
- 90%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-07-19
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for risk management
6 forecasts published, 4 scored, mean accuracy 79%.
No source documents resolve for this artefact.