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Forecast f4ee7084 · published 2026-08-19
Around 2 job postings for project manager roles are expected the week of Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026 (likely range: 0–4, 80% coverage) — down from 5 the week of Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 2 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-02
- Expires
- 2026-08-09
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 11 job postings
- Off by
- 9 postings
- Accuracy
- 17%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-4.0 missed the observed 11.0 (up) in 2026-W31; point estimate was 1.9 (down).
Observed history
project manager — the series behind the fit
May 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 5 mentions
How we know
Evidence
5
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
Last updated
2026-08-19
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 1.86
- Actual
- 11
- Accuracy
- 17%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-02
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for project manager
16 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 18%.
Primary sources
Holepunch: Product / Technical Project Manager (100% Remote, Worldwide)2026-06-30job listing