SHIOSStrategic Honesty Intelligence
All forecasts

Forecast 00a2626c · published 2026-07-30

Around 2 job postings mentioning change management are expected the week of Jul 13–19, 2026 (likely range: 0–4, 80% confidence) — down from 3 the week of Jun 15–21, 2026.

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period
Jul 13–19, 2026
Predicted mentions
2 job postings
Direction
↓ Falling
Method
Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by
2026-07-19
Expires
2026-07-26

Confidence at publication

15%

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions
0 job postings
Off by
2 postings
Accuracy
0%
Direction
✓ Called correctly

Interval 0.0-4.3 missed the observed 0.0 (down) in 2026-W29; point estimate was 2.2 (down).

Observed history

change management — the series behind the fit

May 11–17, 2026: 3 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 3 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 3 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 1 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 2 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 3 mentions

How we know

Evidence

15+

Confidence

15%

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-30

Reality validation

Predicted
2.18
Actual
0
Accuracy
0%
Direction
called correctly

How this forecast was made

Approach
Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead
4 weeks
Checked against reality by
2026-07-19
Can it be edited?
No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for change management

6 forecasts published, 3 scored, mean accuracy 47%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.