Forecast 085802af · published 2026-08-19
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-3.1 covered the observed 2.0 (up) in 2026-W32; point estimate was 1.6 (up).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-19
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for data analysis
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 39%.
Primary sources