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Forecast 8279bd49 · published 2026-08-15
Around 21 job postings mentioning security are expected the week of Sep 7–13, 2026 (likely range: 0–44, 80% coverage) — up from 8 the week of Aug 10–16, 2026.
Confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 7–13, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 21 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-09-13
- Expires
- 2026-09-20
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 15 job postings
- Off by
- 6 postings
- Accuracy
- 70%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✓ Actual fell inside it
Interval 0.0-43.7 covered the observed 15.0 (up) in 2026-W37; point estimate was 21.3 (up).
Observed history
security — the series behind the fit
Jul 6–12, 2026: 2 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 21 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 16 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 7 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 4 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
4 sources
Last updated
2026-08-15
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 21.3
- Actual
- 15
- Accuracy
- 70%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-09-13
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for security
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources