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Forecast adfcaa2b · published 2026-09-07
Around 21 job postings mentioning security are expected the week of Oct 5–11, 2026 (likely range: 0–72, 80% coverage) — up from 14 the week of Sep 7–13, 2026.
Confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Oct 5–11, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 21 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-11
- Expires
- 2026-10-18
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 8 job postings
- Off by
- 13 postings
- Accuracy
- 38%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✓ Actual fell inside it
Interval 0.0-71.8 covered the observed 8.0 (down) in 2026-W41; point estimate was 21.1 (up).
Observed history
security — the series behind the fit
Aug 3–9, 2026: 7 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 4 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 9 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 414 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 154 mentionsSep 7–13, 2026: 17 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
Last updated
2026-09-07
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 21.1
- Actual
- 8
- Accuracy
- 38%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-11
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for security
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources