Forecast 7d3080d9 · published 2026-07-30
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 8.5-47.9 missed the observed 2.0 (flat) in 2026-W35; point estimate was 28.2 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-07-30
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources