Forecast cefde447 · published 2026-08-31
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-102.6 covered the observed 2.0 (down) in 2026-W40; point estimate was 36.3 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
95% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-31
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources