Forecast 7bff8e8a · published 2026-08-18
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-66.7 covered the observed 6.0 (down) in 2026-W38; point estimate was 18.8 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
98% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-18
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for react
10 forecasts published, 10 scored, mean accuracy 16%.
Primary sources