Forecast 9b3f01b8 · published 2026-08-15
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-78.4 covered the observed 15.0 (up) in 2026-W37; point estimate was 39.0 (up).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
3 sources
93% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-15
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for automation
21 forecasts published, 15 scored, mean accuracy 42%.
Primary sources