Forecast 566c6483 · published 2026-08-18
What was claimed
Confidence at publication
What happened
Interval 0.0-82.0 covered the observed 75.0 (up) in 2026-W38; point estimate was 23.6 (down).
Observed history
How we know
Evidence
Confidence
Source diversity
2 sources
93% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-18
Reality validation
How this forecast was made
Track record for automation
21 forecasts published, 15 scored, mean accuracy 42%.
Primary sources