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Forecast 46196c5a · published 2026-08-15
Around 5 job postings for program manager roles are expected the week of Sep 7–13, 2026 (likely range: 3–7, 80% coverage) — up from 4 the week of Aug 10–16, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 7–13, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 5 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-09-13
- Expires
- 2026-09-20
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 153 job postings
- Off by
- 148 postings
- Accuracy
- 3%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 3.1-7.2 missed the observed 153.0 (up) in 2026-W37; point estimate was 5.2 (up).
Observed history
program manager — the series behind the fit
Jul 6–12, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 3 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 7 mentionsJul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 2 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 6 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 7 mentions
How we know
Evidence
24+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
83% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-15
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 5.16
- Actual
- 153
- Accuracy
- 3%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-09-13
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for program manager
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources
Airtable: Program Manager, Professional Services - East2026-07-22job listing