Forecasts
G
← All forecasts
Forecast 0b606f8a · published 2026-09-03
Around 6 job postings mentioning confluence are expected the week of Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 (likely range: 0–21, 80% coverage) — down from 74 the week of Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 6 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-04
- Expires
- 2026-10-11
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 32 job postings
- Off by
- 26 postings
- Accuracy
- 19%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-21.1 missed the observed 32.0 (down) in 2026-W40; point estimate was 6.1 (down).
Observed history
confluence — the series behind the fit
Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 106 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 84 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-03
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 6.12
- Actual
- 32
- Accuracy
- 19%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-04
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for confluence
6 forecasts published, 2 scored, mean accuracy 28%.
Primary sources