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Forecast 3c544661 · published 2026-09-12
Around 7 job postings mentioning aws are expected the week of Oct 5–11, 2026 (likely range: 0–20, 80% coverage) — down from 36 the week of Sep 7–13, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Oct 5–11, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 7 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-11
- Expires
- 2026-10-18
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 33 job postings
- Off by
- 26 postings
- Accuracy
- 21%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-19.7 missed the observed 33.0 (down) in 2026-W41; point estimate was 6.9 (down).
Observed history
aws — the series behind the fit
Aug 3–9, 2026: 1 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 3 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 11 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 63 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 87 mentionsSep 7–13, 2026: 39 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
Last updated
2026-09-12
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 6.9
- Actual
- 33
- Accuracy
- 21%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-11
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for aws
14 forecasts published, 13 scored, mean accuracy 44%.
Primary sources