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Forecast 6053deac · published 2026-09-07
Around 8 job postings mentioning confluence are expected the week of Oct 5–11, 2026 (likely range: 0–24, 80% coverage) — down from 38 the week of Sep 7–13, 2026.
Confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Oct 5–11, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 8 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-11
- Expires
- 2026-10-18
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 21 job postings
- Off by
- 13 postings
- Accuracy
- 36%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✓ Actual fell inside it
Interval 0.0-23.6 covered the observed 21.0 (down) in 2026-W41; point estimate was 7.6 (down).
Observed history
confluence — the series behind the fit
Aug 3–9, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 106 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 84 mentionsSep 7–13, 2026: 38 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-07
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 7.62
- Actual
- 21
- Accuracy
- 36%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-11
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for confluence
6 forecasts published, 2 scored, mean accuracy 28%.
Primary sources