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Forecast 8a38cbc1 · published 2026-08-19
Around 8 job postings mentioning agile delivery are expected the week of Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026 (likely range: 0–17, 80% coverage) — down from 22 the week of Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026.
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 8 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-02
- Expires
- 2026-08-09
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 76 job postings
- Off by
- 68 postings
- Accuracy
- 11%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-17.4 missed the observed 76.0 (up) in 2026-W31; point estimate was 8.2 (down).
Observed history
agile delivery — the series behind the fit
May 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 8–14, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 22 mentions
How we know
Evidence
22+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
2 sources
95% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-08-19
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 8.17
- Actual
- 76
- Accuracy
- 11%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-02
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for agile delivery
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 46%.
Primary sources