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Forecast 28ca3437 · published 2026-09-14
Around 9 job postings mentioning confluence are expected the week of Oct 12–18, 2026 (likely range: 0–25, 80% coverage) — down from 37 the week of Sep 14–20, 2026.
Not yet resolved
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Oct 12–18, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 9 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-18
- Expires
- 2026-10-25
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
Not yet scored. This forecast is still inside its review window, so nothing here is proven — it is a claim awaiting a verdict.
Observed history
confluence — the series behind the fit
Aug 10–16, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 106 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 84 mentionsSep 7–13, 2026: 38 mentionsSep 14–20, 2026: 37 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-14
Reality validation
Not yet scored against reality.
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-18
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for confluence
6 forecasts published, 2 scored, mean accuracy 28%.
Primary sources