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Forecast 948f2d75 · published 2026-09-02
Around 13 job postings mentioning change management are expected the week of Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 (likely range: 0–46, 80% coverage) — down from 210 the week of Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026.
Partially confirmed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 13 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-10-04
- Expires
- 2026-10-11
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 94 job postings
- Off by
- 81 postings
- Accuracy
- 14%
- Direction
- ✓ Called correctly
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 0.0-45.5 missed the observed 94.0 (down) in 2026-W40; point estimate was 13.4 (down).
Observed history
change management — the series behind the fit
Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 3–9, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 10–16, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 17–23, 2026: 0 mentionsAug 24–30, 2026: 182 mentionsAug 31–Sep 6, 2026: 210 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-09-02
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 13.39
- Actual
- 94
- Accuracy
- 14%
- Direction
- called correctly
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-10-04
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for change management
15 forecasts published, 9 scored, mean accuracy 30%.
Primary sources