job postings count for role 'program manager' is forecast at 14 in Aug 17–23, 2026, within 12-16 at 80% confidence (up from 10 in Jul 20–26, 2026).

Partially confirmed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period: Aug 17–23, 2026
Predicted mentions: 14 job postings
Direction: ↑ Rising
Method: Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by: 2026-08-23
Expires: 2026-08-30

Confidence at publication

Moderate signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions: 27 job postings
Off by: 13 postings
Accuracy: 52%
Direction: ✓ Called correctly
Predicted range: ✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 11.6-16.2 missed the observed 27.0 (up) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 13.9 (up).

Observed history

program manager — the series behind the fit

Jun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 3 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 7 mentions

How we know

Evidence

40+

Confidence

Moderate signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-26

Reality validation

Predicted: 13.91
Actual: 27
Accuracy: 52%
Direction: called correctly

How this forecast was made

Approach: Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead: 4 weeks
Checked against reality by: 2026-08-23
Can it be edited?: No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for program manager

20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.