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Forecast cf81617c · published 2026-07-26

job postings count for role 'program manager' is forecast at 14 in Jun 22–28, 2026, within 12-15 at 80% confidence (up from 8 in May 25–31, 2026).

Missed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period
Jun 22–28, 2026
Predicted mentions
14 job postings
Direction
↑ Rising
Method
Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by
2026-06-28
Expires
2026-07-05

Confidence at publication

Early signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions
7 job postings
Off by
7 postings
Accuracy
51%
Direction
✗ Missed
Predicted range
✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 12.1-15.3 missed the observed 7.0 (down) in 2026-W26; point estimate was 13.7 (up).

Observed history

program manager — the series behind the fit

May 4–10, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 11–17, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 0 mentions

How we know

Evidence

24+

Confidence

Early signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-26

Reality validation

Predicted
13.7
Actual
7
Accuracy
51%
Direction
missed

How this forecast was made

Approach
Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead
4 weeks
Checked against reality by
2026-06-28
Can it be edited?
No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for program manager

20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.