job postings count for skill 'automation' is forecast at 56 in Aug 17–23, 2026, within 25-87 at 80% confidence (down from 86 in Jul 20–26, 2026).

Missed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period: Aug 17–23, 2026
Predicted mentions: 56 job postings
Direction: ↓ Falling
Method: Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by: 2026-08-23
Expires: 2026-08-30

Confidence at publication

Early signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions: 485 job postings
Off by: 429 postings
Accuracy: 12%
Direction: ✗ Missed
Predicted range: ✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 25.4-86.5 missed the observed 485.0 (up) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 55.9 (down).

Observed history

automation — the series behind the fit

Jun 15–21, 2026: 1 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 2 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 2 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 8 mentions

How we know

Evidence

40+

Confidence

Early signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-26

Reality validation

Predicted: 55.94
Actual: 485
Accuracy: 12%
Direction: missed

How this forecast was made

Approach: Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead: 4 weeks
Checked against reality by: 2026-08-23
Can it be edited?: No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for automation

21 forecasts published, 15 scored, mean accuracy 42%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.