job postings count for skill 'risk management' is forecast at 20 in Aug 17–23, 2026, within 17-23 at 80% confidence (up from 16 in Jul 20–26, 2026).

Missed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period: Aug 17–23, 2026
Predicted mentions: 20 job postings
Direction: ↑ Rising
Method: Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by: 2026-08-23
Expires: 2026-08-30

Confidence at publication

Moderate signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions: 3 job postings
Off by: 17 postings
Accuracy: 15%
Direction: ✗ Missed
Predicted range: ✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 16.7-22.8 missed the observed 3.0 (flat) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 19.8 (up).

Observed history

risk management — the series behind the fit

Jun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 2 mentions

How we know

Evidence

40+

Confidence

Moderate signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-26

Reality validation

Predicted: 19.78
Actual: 3
Accuracy: 15%
Direction: missed

How this forecast was made

Approach: Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead: 4 weeks
Checked against reality by: 2026-08-23
Can it be edited?: No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for risk management

14 forecasts published, 8 scored, mean accuracy 45%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.