← All forecasts
Forecast 492fc41a · published 2026-07-26
job postings count for skill 'risk management' is forecast at 21 in Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026, within 16-26 at 80% confidence (up from 14 in Jun 1–7, 2026).
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 21 job postings
- Direction
- ↑ Rising
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-07-05
- Expires
- 2026-07-12
Confidence at publication
33%
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 13 job postings
- Off by
- 8 postings
- Accuracy
- 63%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
Interval 16.1-25.5 missed the observed 13.0 (down) in 2026-W27; point estimate was 20.8 (up).
Observed history
risk management — the series behind the fit
May 4–10, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 11–17, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
33%
Source diversity
0 sources
Last updated
2026-07-26
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 20.8
- Actual
- 13
- Accuracy
- 63%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-07-05
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for risk management
6 forecasts published, 4 scored, mean accuracy 79%.
No source documents resolve for this artefact.