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Forecast 0ac4c029 · published 2026-07-26
job postings count for skill 'security' is forecast at 16 in Aug 17–23, 2026, within 8-23 at 80% confidence (down from 22 in Jul 20–26, 2026).
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Aug 17–23, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 16 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-23
- Expires
- 2026-08-30
Confidence at publication
Early signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 285 job postings
- Off by
- 269 postings
- Accuracy
- 5%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 8.2-22.8 missed the observed 285.0 (up) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 15.5 (down).
Observed history
security — the series behind the fit
Jun 15–21, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 4 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 2 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 21 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Early signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-07-26
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 15.52
- Actual
- 285
- Accuracy
- 5%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-23
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for security
20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.
Primary sources