Forecasts
G
← All forecasts

Forecast 77f9269c · published 2026-07-26

job postings count for skill 'security' is forecast at 1 in Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026, within 0-7 at 80% confidence (down from 2 in Jun 1–7, 2026).

Missed

What was claimed

The forecast

Target period
Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026
Predicted mentions
1 job postings
Direction
↓ Falling
Method
Linear trend fit with confidence interval
Review by
2026-07-05
Expires
2026-07-12

Confidence at publication

Early signal

What happened

Outcome

Actual mentions
8 job postings
Off by
7 postings
Accuracy
15%
Direction
✗ Missed
Predicted range
✗ Actual fell outside it

Interval 0.0-7.5 missed the observed 8.0 (up) in 2026-W27; point estimate was 1.2 (down).

Observed history

security — the series behind the fit

May 4–10, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 11–17, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 18–24, 2026: 0 mentionsMay 25–31, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 1–7, 2026: 0 mentions

How we know

Evidence

24+

Confidence

Early signal

Source diversity

0 sources

Last updated

2026-07-26

Reality validation

Predicted
1.2
Actual
8
Accuracy
15%
Direction
missed

How this forecast was made

Approach
Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
How far ahead
4 weeks
Checked against reality by
2026-07-05
Can it be edited?
No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is

Track record for security

20 forecasts published, 14 scored, mean accuracy 38%.

No source documents resolve for this artefact.