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Forecast 78408e76 · published 2026-07-26
job postings count for technology 'azure' is forecast at 12 in Aug 17–23, 2026, within 10-15 at 80% confidence (down from 13 in Jul 20–26, 2026).
Missed
What was claimed
The forecast
- Target period
- Aug 17–23, 2026
- Predicted mentions
- 12 job postings
- Direction
- ↓ Falling
- Method
- Linear trend fit with confidence interval
- Review by
- 2026-08-23
- Expires
- 2026-08-30
Confidence at publication
Moderate signal
What happened
Outcome
- Actual mentions
- 43 job postings
- Off by
- 31 postings
- Accuracy
- 28%
- Direction
- ✗ Missed
- Predicted range
- ✗ Actual fell outside it
Interval 9.7-14.7 missed the observed 43.0 (up) in 2026-W34; point estimate was 12.2 (down).
Observed history
azure — the series behind the fit
Jun 15–21, 2026: 1 mentionsJun 22–28, 2026: 0 mentionsJun 29–Jul 5, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 6–12, 2026: 0 mentionsJul 13–19, 2026: 1 mentionsJul 20–26, 2026: 0 mentions
How we know
Evidence
40+
Confidence
Moderate signal
Source diversity
1 source
100% from one source — treat as narrow
Last updated
2026-07-26
Reality validation
- Predicted
- 12.18
- Actual
- 43
- Accuracy
- 28%
- Direction
- missed
How this forecast was made
- Approach
- Linear trend fitted to recent weekly counts, with a range to account for uncertainty
- How far ahead
- 4 weeks
- Checked against reality by
- 2026-08-23
- Can it be edited?
- No — forecasts are locked at publication and scored as-is
Track record for azure
17 forecasts published, 11 scored, mean accuracy 45%.
Primary sources